Something is happening

There is an intriguing report from Dubai via Britain that OBL has been 'located'. This coincides with an American report that a message from Al Q is expected to call for the use of WMD against the West.

Whether this is another scare tactic (and by whom) is unclear. However, the signals that a major WMD attack is coming have been multiplying since the Madrid attacks. A consistent theme of the Al Q messages since then has been that preparations for an operation, variously known as Winds of Black Death, the Gift of Al-Aqsa, or the Gift of the Sheik, are nearly completed. At the same time, OBL himself has published a number of calls for Westerners to convert, and has asked for an opinion by religious scholars on the use of WMD against civilians in the West. In his last known video, he appeared with a dyed beard, which is apparently permissible in strict Islam only when on active military operations.

A final piece of the puzzle may be a recent message from al Zawahiri, in which he ends by repeating three times the last lines spoken by Mohamed before his ascent to heaven. This message is very different from the others published by al Zawahiri, and may have contained some sort of activation message.

Whether this is psychological warfare, disinformation, or a presage, it will be interesting to watch events in the next few weeks and months.